Christofoo Review

A lot of people have said a lot of crazy stuff about global warming. I don't consider myself an expert on this subject, but maybe I'm reasonably well informed, so here is my rant.

First, I have to say that I've seen "An Inconvenient Truth," and Al Gore is a straw man. Anyone who has based any sort of opinion on Al Gore deserves to rethink it.

The real center of this debate belongs to the IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change). The most recent IPCC report is from 2007. Here is wikipedia's summary of the report's findings, and below is my summary of wikipedia's summary:

• "Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations." (Here "very likely" means more than 90% certainty.)
• Model-based simulations predict between 1.1 and 6.4 degrees C increase in global average temperatures this century, depending primarily on the greenhouse gas concentration, but also dependent on other factors. (See this chart.)
• Ocean levels will rise 7 to 23 inches (depending primarily on greenhouse gas concentrations), BUT we know that this number is low, because the effect of ice sheet flow was neglected due to inadequate data. This doesn't mean that ice sheet flow is not important, it means that the IPCC ran this calculation as if it wasn't there, because the correct calculation would require numbers that they hadn't determined. The report also includes this statement: "Partial loss of ice sheets on polar land could imply metres of sea level rise, major changes in coastlines and inundation of low-lying areas, with greatest effects in river deltas and low-lying islands. Such changes are projected to occur over millennial time scales, but more rapid sea level rise on century time scales cannot be excluded." This is a fairly controversial subject, even amongst scientists. I presume that someday in the future the science will have more clarity.
• You've probably heard most of the policy recommendations, here is the link. I have to point out that the IPCC estimated that the cost of stabilizing greenhouse gases between 445-535ppm CO2 equivalent would reduce annual GDP growth by only 0.12%. (... not to be confused with 12% or 1.2%. The number is 0.12%.)

So now you know as much as I do.